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MANIFOLD
Will Chang'e-7 launch by August 31, 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ16
2027
63%
chance

Resolves YES if China's Chang'e-7 lunar spacecraft launches from Earth by 11:59 PM China Standard Time on August 31, 2027. Otherwise resolves NO.

The launch counts once its launch vehicle lifts off with Chang'e-7 aboard, regardless of the mission's later outcome.

Primary sources: the China National Space Administration and Xinhua. The market closes one month before the deadline and expected launch window.

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