Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?
17
120
330
2030
6%
chance

Tianwen-3 is a dual launch mission comprising a combination orbiter and Earth return vehicle, and a combination lander ascent vehicle. Both are built by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) for CNSA, China's national space agency. The orbiter / return vehicle is planned to be launched in November of 2028, the lander is planned to be launched in May or December of 2028. Both launches need to have occured for this market to resolve "Yes"

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While the initial plan was to launch in 2028 launch window (Martian launch window recurs every two years), now the plan is to launch in 2030, one launch window later. This market is basically impossible to resolve YES now.

China targets 2030 for Mars sample return mission, potential landing areas revealed (2024-03-08).