Trump visits China by May 15?

Question

Resolves to YES if:

Donald Trump physically visits mainland China (e.g., Beijing or any city in China)

The visit occurs on or before May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM PT

The visit is confirmed by:

Official government statements, or

A consensus of credible reporting

Resolves to NO if:

Trump does not visit China within the specified timeframe

The trip is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or delayed beyond May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM PT

A planned or announced trip does NOT count — the visit must occur

A layover without an official visit does NOT count

Virtual meetings or summits outside China do NOT count

Market may resolve immediately upon confirmed arrival in mainland China

If arrival time is unclear, first widely reported timestamp of landing/arrival will be used.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 92% chance (256 traders, as of May 9, 2026).