Some of these changes were already detailed on the Manifold Newsletter, Above the Fold.
Interested in sports? Skip to the bottom.
Browse
We're running an A/B test soon on new browse behaviour. You don't need to do anything, but your experience may differ from others temporarily while we find the best direction.
What's new in perps
You can now partially close perp positions. It looks & works more like regular markets.
"close" now opens the following modal:
If you haven't noticed already, check out the new perps page, and at the bottom you can suggest new perps, and upvote suggestions from others. 5 New perps:
Perps with lower leverage are expected to increase, as will the house subsidy, when we are confident that the max funding levers are appropriate. If you have idle mana, you can also profit by holding long term positions
A short-heavy notional perp will now accept more longs even against a smaller pool.
Keep an eye on fees!
The base fee is still 0.1% but this varies per market and is likely to be reduced soon on some fast-tick markets
The base API trade fee is an additional 0.2%
Impact fees apply when your position takes up too much of the available liquidity. This is so that more people have a chance to enter -- if more counterparties join, you will be able to add to your position without encountering the impact fee. The fee is detailed before you trade, but examples:
50% of pool = ~17.5bp Web | ~37.5bp API
100% of pool = ~40bp Web | ~60bp API
App update
Once you update your app, you will be able to add the Manifold widget to your home or lock screen on compatible devices. Let me know if your device looks worse than these, as some still use a fallback, and I will need to update for some other models!
To check if your app is up to date, open the streak modal by clicking the streak count icon. It should show something like this, plus a button to instantly add the widget to your home screen if you’re on Android.
Post a photo of the widget on your home or lockscreen, and I'll send you some free mana as a bonus! (currently M500, may change)
More app changes
We’ve improved sign-in reliability across Manifold’s iOS and Android apps, alongside several Android-specific fixes for identity verification and larger screens. This release focuses on mobile-app quality and does not change markets or trading.
Sign-in and account management
Fixed a sign-in loop that could send users back to the login screen after a successful sign-in.
Improved session restoration after reopening the app and on slower connections.
Made logout and account switching more reliable (but don’t forget our policy about alts!)
Prevented delayed session updates from restoring the previous or wrong account.
Added clearer messages for network failures, unavailable accounts, and conflicting sign-in methods.
Reduced misleading errors when a Google or Apple sign-in flow is cancelled.
Android improvements
Fixed identity verification so it can request camera access for ID and selfie capture.
Kept camera hardware optional, so compatible devices without a camera can still install the app.
Allowed Android tablets and foldables to rotate normally while keeping phones in portrait.
Updated the Android system-bar configuration to meet current edge-to-edge standards.
Final fix for a bug where Android notifications occasionally failed to navigate properly. If you encounter this bug again, try to remember the notification and report it.
Security and reliability
Restricted credential handoffs to successfully loaded Manifold pages.
Prevented stale sign-in requests, sessions, or tokens from affecting the current session experience.
Improved sign-in recovery when an in-app page takes longer than expected to load.
Added better diagnostics for authentication failures and login loops.
Other updates
Streak refunds
Remember to buy streak freezes so you don’t lose your streak!
There’s also a bug with streak timing that I haven’t quite solved yet, so it’s best to wait until we’re at least a few minutes into a new day before placing your next bet to ensure it counts for your streak timing.
Sports
To any sports bettors, I'd love to create a sports hub like the new /perps page. Please send me photos of your favourite sports-betting UI's from around the world, so that we can create the best possible experience.
The plan is to build out something where you can easily find the sport, see the upcoming games, and all the related markets / prop bets.
I need your help identifying the best versions of this that already exist. Here's some early stage mockups of a potential new design:
To save liquidity, any new automated sports markets will need to be initialised at externally sourced odds, and possibly have the liquidity withdrawn before the live games. Any other suggestions to improve AMM liquidity without pumping in tons of mana would be greatly appreciated!
The Overhang
Myself, SG, and Stefanie, will all be in DC for The Overhang, a two-day forecasting conference, September 19-20th in Washington DC.
Check it out here: https://theoverhang.ai/
Inspired by Manifest, and run by the team who put on Manifest X DC last year, sessions for its 150 attendees will call on the community's playfulness, ambition, whimsy, and skill. The theme of this weekend is Forecasting, broadly construed, whether that’s prediction markets, calibration, your own personal growth, or just talking about exciting new problems we’ll solve in the world to come.
I'd also like to welcome @Quroe to the mod team! A long-time user who has brought us some very interesting markets, a Manifold game show (happening again at the overhang in DC!), and is always positive on site. 🎉
Happy forecasting!
@Gen I like this lockscreen one the most.
For me the text the 2x2 gets a bit cutoff .. would love if I could track a market on the larger one like you can with the Stocks widget
@yeeta yeah I don’t think it’ll update often enough for a stock tracker to work. It’s not really feasible unfortunately
Or maybe it is, as a much bigger job than the widgets already were
I think Kalshi's approach to sports is probably the most relevant to Manifold, but you can also look at what all the sportsbooks do.
There's generally a distinction made between futures and events. There's also a lot of hierarchical structure. For instance Football -> NFL -> events -> NE@SEA 9/9 -> player props -> passing -> passing TDs.
Events should be organized chronologically. Then maybe you can let people attach their markets to the relevant event. Sub categories might be needed if there are a lot of markets for one event.
@Quroe what’s the resize? I’ll need to add more variants. I’m hoping if we get enough data in this comment section I can feed it into the machine and skip many steps
@MAKER hahah oh no... What device is this? 😅 Some of the android fallback displays are really scuffed, especially at the odd sizes.
I will eventually come back and fix them..
@MAKER Wow, cool! Never thought to test on that. I hope there's a size where it isn't completely awful - it's actually nice to have a 2x2 countdown and streak reminder!
