This market resolves YES if and only if on Jan 1st, 2036 a human, for the first time, sets foot on the Martian surface.
This market will resolve with the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/JamesGiammona/will-a-human-step-foot-on-mars-by-2-8cc75fd1cb55, except for the change in the date.
1,000takeoff.watch forecast: 0%. YES needs the first crewed Mars landing to come from the 2035 launch window (about 5%) and the first step to fall on exactly 1 Jan 2036. Minimum-energy arrivals cluster near early January, but faster crew trajectories land in Oct–Dec, so the specific day gets about 2%. Overall about 0.1%.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
@DavidBolin This will use the same time zone as the linked question. I'm not actually sure what this is, so I'll try to get it clarified.