Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040? | Manifold

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040?

60

1kṀ3502

2041

60%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves yes if on or before Jan 1st, 2041, a human has set foot on the Martian surface.

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Obligatory question: crashing on Mars counts?

predictedYES

@mariopasquato Nope, they have to at least take one step alive.

Will this market resolve early if a human steps foot on Mars before 2040?

@slightknack Yes

"Closes in 19 years." Ugh, what was I thinking......

M$ 36 before 2040 or M$ -20 in 2040. I take it.

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