Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2028 (11:59:59 PM UTC), official United States armed forces conduct a sustained ground invasion or deploy conventional ground combat units onto sovereign Iranian territory with hostile intent.

• Ground invasion definition: Requires a deployment of conventional combat ground troops (e.g., U.S. Army, U.S. Marine Corps) conducting offensive operations inside internationally recognized borders of Iran.

• Exclusions: Short-duration special operations raids (e.g., hostage rescues or brief targeting strikes lasting under 48 hours), airborne/missile/drone strikes without occupying ground forces, naval interdictions in maritime zones, intelligence extraction operations, or accidental border incursions do not qualify.

• Resolution source: Confirmation by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense or unanimous reporting by major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

• If no qualifying ground invasion has commenced before January 1, 2028, this market resolves to NO.

Background

Direct military confrontation between the United States and Iran has historically been characterized by proxy warfare, naval skirmishes in the Persian Gulf, targeted strikes, and cyber operations rather than direct land invasion. Iran's mountainous geography, military size, and extensive ballistic missile and proxy networks present significant strategic barriers to large-scale ground campaigns, leading defense analysts to view an amphibious or ground invasion as a distinct and far costlier scenario compared to standoff air or naval operations.

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