Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2027 (11:59:59 PM UTC), the United States military, acting under the executive authority or direct order of Donald Trump as President of the United States, detonates a nuclear weapon inside the internationally recognized sovereign territory or airspace of Iran.

• This market resolves to No if Donald Trump leaves office, ceases to be President, or if no such detonation occurs before January 1, 2027.

• Resolution will rely on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or United Nations Security Council, corroborated by multiple major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

• Conventional strikes, cyber warfare, or covert sabotage of nuclear facilities do not qualify. The weapon must be an actual nuclear explosive device detonated inside Iran.

Background

The question concerns extreme escalation scenarios involving U.S. nuclear posture toward Iran. The United States has not used a nuclear weapon in combat since August 1945. Under U.S. law and nuclear command-and-control doctrine, the President has sole authority to authorize the launch of U.S. nuclear forces, though military leadership reviews orders for legality under the law of armed conflict.

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