https://www.reuters.com/technology/un-chief-backs-idea-global-ai-watchdog-like-nuclear-agency-2023-06-12/

If an international AI watchdog body, modeled after the IAEA, comes into legal force before May 31, 2027, this will resolve YES. Detailed criteria to follow.

UN chief backs idea of global AI watchdog like nuclear agency

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday backed a proposal by some artificial intelligence executives for the creation of an international AI watchdog body like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The ratifying members need NOT include top ranked nations by compute power, such as U.S. or China; the goal of this market is not to speak to any projections of its efficacy in its infancy.

Critieria for Legal Force: The judgment of whether this qualifies as coming into force will be from multiple (at least 2), written, authoritative news sources (i.e: NYT, WAPO, FT, WSJ); if multiple authoritative sources are not available by May 31, 2023 then this will resolve NO.

Criteria for Similarity (all must be satisfied):

(a) If multiple references (as above) describe the body as being "similar to," "like", or "modeled after" the IAEA are not available by May 31, 2023 then this will resolve NO.

(b) These sources that reference the body's similarity MUST have a publication date on, or after the body has been ratified by at least one member state (this is to set a clear cutoff in case the design/structure of the body changes as compared to the initial planning stages).

(c) If there are other authoritative sources with conflicting judgments about the body being dissimilar or different than the IAEA, this will not negate the sources saying it is similar by (a), and so will still satisfy the criteria for similarity.

Note: the closing date is four years from the second AI safety letter released on May 30, 2023; the rationale for this is in part to consider if this event was comparable in significance to Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" speech in 1953, as it took less than four years from then for the IAEA to come into force in 1957.