Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the continent where the government infrastructure targeted in the next confirmed cyberattack or security breach conducted by or significantly involving an autonomous AI agent is located.

Resolution will be determined based on credible reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) or official disclosures from government cybersecurity authorities (e.g., US CISA, UK NCSC, or national ministries of digital affairs).

• Location determination: The outcome is based on the geographic continent of the affected government target or infrastructure, not the location of the threat actor or where the AI agent was hosted.

• Infrastructure scope: Targets must be systems owned, operated, or managed by a local, state, federal, or national government body or critical public sector entity.

• Agentic involvement: The cyber incident must involve an AI agent or model executing multi-step tasks, autonomous exploration, or exploitation with minimal human intervention.

If a single cyber incident targets government infrastructure in multiple continents simultaneously, the market resolves to the continent of the first officially documented breach location.

Background

The emergence of agentic AI has shifted cyber threats from AI-assisted tasking to autonomous operations. Documented cases include AI agent intrusions into Taiwan's government network, autonomous access of Australia's Medicare statistical portal, and state-sponsored groups manipulating AI coding agents to target public sector organizations.

Because the predefined answer list cannot be expanded after creation, the market will resolve to whichever listed continent experiences the next qualifying attack.

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