SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security
24
1kṀ17182027
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security.
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Public opinion, late 2025: Out-of-control AI becoming a threat to humanity, a real threat?
Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
15% chance
In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?
By the end of 2025, will a NATO country announce that it will use AI for military defense decisions?
4% chance
10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.
40% chance
SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI
23% chance
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?
15% chance
Massive wave of AI cyberattacks by EOY 2026?
62% chance
Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)
30% chance
Which Org Causes AI Disaster?