Will any open-source model achieve GPT-4 level performance on MMLU through 2024?

GPT-4 currently leads the Multi-task language understanding benchmark [1] at 86.4% [2]. Will any open-source language model achieve at least 86.4% on MMLU average?

A leaderboard of open-source models can be found here.

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technically this has already been done (through clear data contamination) Should I assume this only resolves yes if there is no evidence of data contamination? Catch me if you can! How to beat GPT-4 with a 13B model | LMSYS Org

What counts as open-source? If hackers steal a model and put it on torrent, is it now open-source? What if a corporation releases the weights but only for research purposes not commercial purposes?

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I’ll count a model as open source if the model weights are accessible by people outside the organization.

Llama was originally released for researchers, and I would count this as open source for the purposes of this question.

If hackers put it on torrent, that’s open source too.

I realize this deviates from the definition of open source used in OSS communities. The spirit of the question is focused on malicious use and proliferation potential.

@mattt OK, thanks for the clarification. In that case this question is pretty much equivalent to mine I think: GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024? | Manifold

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@DanielKokotajlo yep pretty much :)

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