Will a vaccine be pulled off the market due to safety concerns in 2024?
3
9
90
2025
19%
chance

Resolves to YES if a vaccine that was widely administered (more than 1 million doses) is pulled off the market due to safety concerns in at least one OECD country, at any point in 2024.

Otherwise resolves to NO.

The term "pulled off the market" does not apply if rollout is only temporarily paused for 30 days or less.

It has to be an active choice by either a regulator or a pharmaceutical company to stop administering doses of a vaccine that were already produced and have not expired, and that choice has to be influenced mainly by safety concerns.

Does not count on its own:

  • A pharmaceutical company deciding not to produce additional doses of a specific vaccine

  • Doses of a vaccine expiring as part of their regular lifecycle

Heavily inspired by /MaximilianG/will-a-covid-vaccine-be-pulled-off

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I'm assuming "replaced by an updated version" is also not included?

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@EvanDaniel For example, how would this announcement fit under this question:

As part of today’s actions, the bivalent Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines are no longer authorized for use in the United States.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-action-updated-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-better-protect-against-currently-circulating

I'm interpreting that as not being "due to safety concerns". Is that correct?