[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?
4
26
110
2032
13%
chance

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before June 1, 2032, the US FDA authorizes a vaccine on an emergency basis before that vaccine has completed a phase III clinical trial. This is conditional on the US declaring a public health emergency (relevant Metaculus question here) and on a subsequent declaration authorizing the FDA to issue EUAs (no relevant Metaculus question, but example here); If these two conditions are not met, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.

For the purposes of this question, If a vaccine is authorized after a Human Challenge Trial is completed in place of a full-scale phase-III trial, that would be considered an authorization without a phase-III trial and this question would resolve as Yes.


This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

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