Duplicated from @SimonGrayson's market.
The fourth season of the Manifold leagues is coming to an end and we'll see who has survived in the Masters League!
The countdown timer will be reached at midnight PDT and you can see how far past it we are at the top of the page if you click on your league. Now we wait for our positions to be frozen as per the rules:
"Once the countdown is reached the leaderboards will freeze at a random time in the following 24h to determine final ranks"
When will this freeze take place?
The market resolves based on how long into the 24 hour period the freeze takes place. So it if happens between midnight and 4AM PDT, it resolves to 0-4 hours; if it happens between 4AM and 8AM, it resolves to 4-8 hours, etc.
If the freeze happens exactly on the hour and it is not possible to determine whether it happend a single second earlier or later than the cuttoff, the market will resolve to the later time (e.g., it happens at exactly four hours, zero minutes and zero seconds after the start, that counts as 4-8 rather than 0-4).
If it is not possible to determine when the freeze happened (or there is some unexpected element of the leagues which renders this market meaningless), this market will resolve to N/A.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ413 | |
| 2 | Ṁ269 | |
| 3 | Ṁ93 | |
| 4 | Ṁ62 | |
| 5 | Ṁ56 |
People are also trading
Curious how this resolves if the linked market resolves NO. https://manifold.markets/jbca/will-season-4-end-within-the-expect?r=amJjYQ. EDIT: I'd guess N/A, but confirmation would be good
Having discrete 4h chunks instead of some fancy kind of probability mass like metaculus makes for some slightly funky outcomes
If the close happens to land near the end of a 4h chunk, the boundary will have forced people to divest right as we get closer to it
It's almost like there's some outcomes that the market seems almost guaranteed to be unable to predict, if you want to win on average.
the sharp boundaries create dangerous sharp outcomes =]
(but in this case it's guaranteed to resolve after leagues close, so the uneven risk is not really a big deal, I guess!)
@ShitakiIntaki My low profit strat this month netted 5 easy mana: buy later underpriced hours, wait 4 hours, sell after 4 hours passes (smallest cumulative probability) since the value naturally goes up when people sell 0-4 (low risk low reward)
(duplicate)
Previous season's closing times...
Season 1 - 12 hours 6 minutes
Season 2 - 12 hours 22 minutes
Season 3 - 17 hours 5 minutes
So you can come to one of two conclusions... Either it always happens a little bit after the half way mark or we're due an early one!
I've also got a market up on under/over 12 hours: