The third season of the Manifold leagues is coming to an end and we'll see who has survived in the inaugural Masters League!
The countdown timer was reached at 8:00 AM BST (just before this market was created) and you can see how far past it we are at the top of the page if you click on your league. Now we wait for our positions to be frozen as per the rules:
"Once the countdown is reached the leaderboards will freeze at a random time in the following 24h to determine final ranks"
When will this freeze take place?
The market resolves based on how long into the 24 hour period the freeze takes place. So it if happens between Midday BST, it resolves to 0-4 hours, if it happens between Midday and. 4:00 PM it resolves to 4-8 hours, etc.
If the freeze happens exactly on the hour and it is not possible to determine whether it happend a single second earlier or later than the cuttoff, the market will resolve to the later time (eg. it happens at exactly four hours, zero minutes and zero seconds after the start, that counts as 4-8 rather than 0-4).
If it is not possible to determine when the freeze happened (or there is some unexpected element of the leagues which renders this market meaningless), this market will resolve to N/A
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ954 | |
| 2 | Ṁ167 | |
| 3 | Ṁ100 | |
| 4 | Ṁ68 | |
| 5 | Ṁ53 |
@parhizj No, I meant Leagues itself, not this market. Leagues ended at about 7 PM (Central Time), but the leaderboard wasn't frozen in until at least 8 PM (and possibly later, I don't know exactly when it happened). I guess I should have been clearer that that's what I meant, I didn’t mean to insinuate that there was anything wrong with this market not being resolved the second Leagues ends.
@parhizj Wait, nevermind, I just realized you're not the market creator, so I don't know what you meant by that.
@TamarSpoerri adrenaline making me get confused about time zones and panic. i am not cut out for playing live markets
nonepistemic reasons
@jbca Well, the last two seasons both finished in that window. So if you thought there might be some reason why it’s not totally random, that would be the bet to go for!
They don't guarantee that it's uniform random. (Though, last season James said it was: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/when-will-season-2s-random-closing#FYcnwjyMyjveTCkKDyy7 )
edit: actually, if he follows that process, I think the last bucket is slightly less likely?
@SemioticRivalry Why'd you buy it so far down? There's still 5/4 of an hour left for it to resolve to 8-12.