Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

1.1kṀ6854

Dec 31

15%

chance

ALL

This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

Technical AI Timelines

Manifold

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?

34% chance

Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?

15% chance

Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?

4% chance

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

32% chance

Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?

11% chance

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

41% chance

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

49% chance

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

51% chance

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

38% chance

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Sort by:

Does this refer to a single AI model or to a system with scaffolding? What tools is the model allowed to use?

Are there any examples of currently profitable LLM bots?

By users you mean human users right? Anything in the silicon league excluded?

Hmm... I think that this might depend crucially on how many inaccurate users Manifold will have at that point (e.g., would you count people who haven't been active for years, or all the people who lost their starting Mana in a few bets and then stopped using the platform)?