Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if, before May 1, 2025, either Donald Trump or J.D. Vance publicly and unambiguously state their support for a nationwide/Federal abortion ban. The statement must be a direct quote from either Trump or Vance, explicitly endorsing a federal ban on abortion across all U.S. states.
Source Verification: The statement must be confirmed through one of the following two methods:
1. Official Confirmation: The statement must come from an official press release, a verified social media account, or a formal interview. Only one of these sources is required to qualify. Posts made by hackers, deepfake videos, or other similar impersonations will not count.
2. Off-the-Cuff Remarks: If the statement is made incidentally or informally—such as during a rally, in an interview, on an unmuted microphone, etc.—it must be confirmed by the same individual when asked about it again on a later date. This follow-up confirmation must be explicit and directly from the individual to validate the initial statement.
Additional criteria: Second-hand reporting, paraphrased remarks, or sources that are not directly from the individual will not qualify. Dog whistle quotes or ambiguous statements that could imply support without being direct will not be accepted; only clear, explicit statements of support for a nationwide abortion ban will resolve this market as "Yes."
Previous quotes on the subject
- Donald Trump: In a tweet from October 2024, Trump said, "Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it, because it is up to the states to decide based on the will of their voters (the will of the people!)."
- J.D. Vance: In August 2024, Vance stated, "Donald Trump’s view is that we want the individual states and their individual cultures and their unique political sensibilities to make these decisions because we don’t want to have a nonstop federal conflict over this issue."
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I don't think Trump actually has a strong opinion on abortion - he just wants to give the public what they want and stop talking about it. And right now, Americans are definitely against a nationwide ban.
Trump used the abortion issue in his first term to solidify his support among evangelicals, but he's pretty much wrapped them up now. They might be unhappy, but it's not like they have another option.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I agree entirely, but think Vance is the opposite. I have little doubt that Vance sincerely thinks abortion is murder, and that he is unphased about voicing unpopular opinions. It would be politically savvy to stay silent on abortion, but I think there's a >10% chance Vance speaks in favor of a federal ban out of conviction rather than pragmatism. As I'm understanding the criteria, he would merely need to say he would support a ban, regardless of the GOP's intent to pass one.
@VerySeriousPoster That's a fair point. I could imagine Vance saying something about wanting to ban abortion if he were speaking off-the-cuff to other Republicans, but I would be very surprised if he put it in a more formal statement like this market requires.