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MANIFOLD
When, if at all, will JD Vance become president?
64
แน€4kแน€15k
2033
17%
He will become president during the 2025-2029 term.
13%
He will be elected president in the 2028 election.
9%
He will be elected president in the 2032 election.
61%
He will not become president at all (as of the 2032 election.)

  • Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - The question refers to the first time JD Vance becomes president. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If JD Vance is elected president but does not take office for any reason, the market will resolve to "He will not become president at all (as of the 2032 election)."

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump
Republican Party
2028 US Presidential Election
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What happens if he is elected but does not take office for some reason?

@EvanDaniel That'd resolve to "He will not become president at all (as of the 2032 election)."

@ZaneMiller Thanks! I figured that was the case, just wanted to verify I knew what edge cases my bot was betting on.

Is the question, "when will Vance first become president?" In principle, he could become president more than once.

@Scipio11 yes.

bought แน€200 NO

@ZaneMiller What happens if he wins in November 2028 and then Trump, say, dies in December 2028 so that Vance becomes president. I assume it resolves to "during the term"?

@Scipio11 yes.

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