It would be really cool if someone who knows how to scrape data made a spreadsheet of the FTXFF grantees ;)

Not sure what the base rate here is, but I'd guess that a lot fewer orgs will make it than if FTXFF continued to exist; perhaps other EA orgs will bail them out. Not sure if that's good or bad on net; some of those orgs are doing valuable work, nevertheless I think it would cause some degree of reputation laundering on the part of the FTX grantees and especially regrantees, who got their initial chance from FTXFF's more moonshot approach and might not have passed muster at other EA funders, but now will hold onto funding because of <vague handwaving at implied social motives>.

@noumena actually, I think it is still probably positive EV even if the shakeout won't be as harsh as it ought to be from an efficiency standpoint.