If the Collatz conjecture is false, what is the binary logarithm of the first published counterexample, or first published upper bound?
10
410Ṁ4162069
900
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Another Collatz market for fun now that numeric markets are back. Rounded to nearest integer, I guess? Resolves N/A if the conjecture is true, or if the disproof somehow indicates that we'll never find it. According to Wikipedia:
As of 2020, the conjecture has been checked by computer for all starting values up to 2^68 ≈ 2.95×10^20. All initial values tested so far eventually end in the repeating cycle (4; 2; 1) of period 3.[13]
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