Another Collatz market for fun now that numeric markets are back. Rounded to nearest integer, I guess? Resolves N/A if the conjecture is true, or if the disproof somehow indicates that we'll never find it. According to Wikipedia:
As of 2020, the conjecture has been checked by computer for all starting values up to 2^68 ≈ 2.95×10^20. All initial values tested so far eventually end in the repeating cycle (4; 2; 1) of period 3.[13]
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@noumena Seems like the problem is that if it's big we'll never find it; though there are problems where very large counterexamples have been found by math-people rather than CS people
@SeraphinaNix I'm basically saying artificial superintelligence much smarter than any human might be able to prove the conjecture true or false in the future, so it's possible that an extremely large counterexample could be found in that way.