What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?
10
420Ṁ4722050
12%
85%
Collatz conjecture is true
0.6%
42
1%
I predict Yev will sell his stake in #1.
1%
63728127
0.7%
No loans :-(
If someone publishes a counterexample Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves to that number. If someone publishes a proof of Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves #1. If this market doesn't resolve by the end of 2049, it resolves N/A.
Apr 14, 12:08am: This was inspired by my Discord conversation with Gurkenglas about free-response market mechanisms. The point was to test / demonstrate a specific type of market failure with the current mechanism.
Note: When I created this market the answers were numbered. #1 refers to the first answer submitted, in this case "Collatz conjecture is true".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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