Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?
36
1kṀ39852030
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It's a problem a child could understand. Still, there have been countless mathematicians "wasting their careers" attempting to solve what is beyond our grasp -- and it fundamentally comes down to understanding how the multiplicative structure of the integers interacts with the additive. This will be resolved if a proof or disproof is in a journal of high esteem by the time the clock ticks by.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?
13% chance
In what year will the Collatz conjecture be solved?
2045
Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?
3% chance
Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?
20% chance
Is the Collatz conjecture true?
83% chance
Will the Goldbach conjecture be solved by the end of 2030?
21% chance
Will there be a trend spike for the term "collatz" before 2027?
42% chance
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before the Collatz Conjecture?
73% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
47% chance
Sort by:
There's a lot of unexplored theory in the space of directed 1-forests: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoforest
Functional graphs define directed 1-forests. In the case of the collatz conjecture this involves demonstrating that the infinite graph contains only one cycle.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?
13% chance
In what year will the Collatz conjecture be solved?
2045
Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?
3% chance
Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?
20% chance
Is the Collatz conjecture true?
83% chance
Will the Goldbach conjecture be solved by the end of 2030?
21% chance
Will there be a trend spike for the term "collatz" before 2027?
42% chance
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before the Collatz Conjecture?
73% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
47% chance