Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

100Ṁ8375

2030

10%

chance

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i will resolve this market according to my subjective opinion. i will try to consider and understand the opinions of people commenting on this market.

i will not trade on this market.

if any of the conditions below apply for >=7 days before 2030, the market resolves "yes".

if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves "yes".

if I look at current (2025) info which convinces me that currently >75% of people in ukraine are not pro russia, and that ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in or before 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".

Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the condition "if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves 'yes'", the >=7 days must be consecutive.

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For your criteria of occupying Kyiv for at least seven days, do the days have to be consecutive?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 : yes

Your Russian is showing. Please edit to "Kyiv".

@MaxA : thanks for the 'Please edit to "Kyiv".' part of your comment

@Nik how would Russia aligned Ukrainian govnt or a coup resolve?

@spider : if I look at current info which comvince me that currently >75% of people in ukraine are not pro russia, and that ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".