IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer

 Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%. Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Technical AI Timelines

IMO Grand Challenge

Mathematics

Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI

🤖 AI

YouTube

Entertainment

Hardware

Rabbit R1

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

Politics

US Politics

Medicine 

Abortion

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

♟️ Chess

 forecasts Gen AI spend to reach $23.6bn in 2024, up from $10.9bn in 2022 (actual expenditures).  Question will be settled in 2025, as soon as Forrester reports its new estimates.

AI Impacts

If TikTok is divested from ByteDance, or a similar corporate transaction occurs, and TikTok or its assets are transferred to a domestic company, "divest it" resolves YES.

OR, if ByteDance disallows U.S. users from accessing TikTok, or exits the U.S. market within 180 days, "shut it down" resolves YES.

Alternatively, if the bill is overturned by a judge such that TikTok is allowed to operate in a structure substantially similar to its current structure, this question resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.

Fine print: The law gives TikTok 270 days (plus an optional 90 more) to be divested. If this timeline is extended due to legal challenges, the question won't resolve until ByteDance makes (or is forced to make) its final decision. For example, if ByteDance disallows U.S. users from accessing TikTok but they have credible ongoing legal proceedings to overturn the law, this question will stay open until the legal disputes are resolved and TikTok finalizes its decision.

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

TikTok

🇺🇸 US Politics

3/24 3:00 PM: Will the (NO Pelicans) WIN against the (DET Pistons)?

'00':3 '3':2 '3/24':1 'det':12 'pelican':8 'piston':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/24 3:30 PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (LAC Clippers)?

'3':2 '3/24':1 '30':3 '76ers':8 'clipper':13 'lac':12 'phi':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/24 6:00 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against the (MIA Heat)?

'00':3 '3/24':1 '6':2 'cavali':8 'cle':7 'heat':13 'mia':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/24 7:00 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against the (MIL Bucks)?

'00':3 '3/24':1 '7':2 'buck':13 'mil':12 'okc':7 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

3/24 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (MIN Timberwolves)?

'00':3 '3/24':1 '7':2 'gs':7 'min':12 'pm':4 'timberwolv':13 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/24 10:00 PM: Will the (IND Pacers) WIN against the (LAL Lakers)?

'00':3 '10':2 '3/24':1 'ind':7 'laker':13 'lal':12 'pacer':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 7:00 PM: Will (CHA Hornets) WIN against the (CLE Cavaliers)? 

'00':3 '3/25':1 '7':2 'cavali':12 'cha':6 'cle':11 'hornet':7 'pm':4 'win':8

3/25 7:30 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/25':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':12 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'hawk':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 7:30 PM: Will the (DET Pistons) WIN against the (NY Knicks)? 

'3/25':1 '30':3 '7':2 'det':7 'knick':13 'ny':12 'piston':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 7:30 PM: Will the (BKN Nets) WIN against the (TOR Raptors)? 

'3/25':1 '30':3 '7':2 'bkn':7 'net':8 'pm':4 'raptor':13 'tor':12 'win':9

3/25 8:00PM: Will the (WSH Wizards) WIN against the (CHI Bulls)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '8':2 'bull':12 'chi':11 'win':8 'wizard':7 'wsh':6

3/25 8:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (HOU Rockets)? 

'00':3 '3/25':1 '8':2 'blazer':9 'hou':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'rocket':14 'trail':8 'win':10

3/25 8:00PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (SA Spurs)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '8':2 'phx':6 'sa':11 'spur':12 'sun':7 'win':8

3/25 9:00PM: Will the (MEM Grizzlies) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '9':2 'den':11 'grizzli':7 'mem':6 'nugget':12 'win':8

3/25 10:00PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00pm':3 '10':2 '3/25':1 '76ers':7 'king':12 'phi':6 'sac':11 'win':8

3/25 10:30 PM: Will the (IND Pacers) WIN against the (LAC Clippers)? 

'10':2 '3/25':1 '30':3 'clipper':13 'ind':7 'lac':12 'pacer':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 9:00PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (UTAH Jazz)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '9':2 'dal':6 'jazz':12 'maverick':7 'utah':11 'win':8

3/26 7:30 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (MIA Heat)? 

'3/26':1 '30':3 '7':2 'gs':7 'heat':13 'mia':12 'pm':4 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/26 7:30 PM: Will the (LAL Lakers) WIN against the (MIL Bucks)? 

'3/26':1 '30':3 '7':2 'buck':13 'laker':8 'lal':7 'mil':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/26 8:00 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '3/26':1 '8':2 'okc':7 'pelican':13 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

3/26 10:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00':3 '10':2 '3/26':1 'dal':7 'king':13 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'sac':12 'win':9

3/27 7:00 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '7':2 'cavali':8 'cha':12 'cle':7 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '7':2 'gs':7 'magic':13 'orl':12 'pm':4 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/27 7:00 PM: Will the (BKN Nets) WIN against the (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '7':2 'bkn':7 'net':8 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':13 'wsh':12

3/27 7:30 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/27':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':13 'blazer':9 'hawk':14 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

3/27 7:30 PM: Will the (LAC Clippers) WIN against the (PHI 76ers)? 

'3/27':1 '30':3 '7':2 '76ers':13 'clipper':8 'lac':7 'phi':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 7:30 PM: Will the (NY Knicks) WIN against the (TOR Raptors)? 

'3/27':1 '30':3 '7':2 'knick':8 'ny':7 'pm':4 'raptor':13 'tor':12 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the (IND Pacers) WIN against the (CHI Bulls)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'bull':13 'chi':12 'ind':7 'pacer':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the (LAL Lakers) WIN against the (MEM Grizzlies)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'grizzli':13 'laker':8 'lal':7 'mem':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the (DET Pistons) WIN against the (MIN Timberwolves)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'det':7 'min':12 'piston':8 'pm':4 'timberwolv':13 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the HOU Rockets) WIN against the (OKC Thunder)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'hou':7 'okc':12 'pm':4 'rocket':8 'thunder':13 'win':9

3/27 9:00 PM: Will the (SA Spurs) WIN against the (UTAH Jazz)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '9':2 'jazz':13 'pm':4 'sa':7 'spur':8 'utah':12 'win':9

3/27 10:00 PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'00':3 '10':2 '3/27':1 'den':12 'nugget':13 'phx':7 'pm':4 'sun':8 'win':9

3/28 7:30 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/28':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':12 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'hawk':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/28 8:00 PM: Will the (MIL Bucks) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '3/28':1 '8':2 'buck':8 'mil':7 'pelican':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'cha':12 'gs':7 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against the (IND Pacers)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'ind':12 'la':7 'laker':8 'pacer':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Clippers) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'clipper':8 'la':7 'magic':13 'orl':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (DET Pistons) WIN against the (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'det':7 'piston':8 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':13 'wsh':12

3/29 7:30 PM: Will the (CHI Bulls) WIN against the (BKN Nets)?

'3/29':1 '30':3 '7':2 'bkn':12 'bull':8 'chi':7 'net':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:30 PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (CLE Cavaliers)? 

'3/29':1 '30':3 '7':2 '76ers':8 'cavali':13 'cle':12 'phi':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 8:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (MIA Heat)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '8':2 'blazer':9 'heat':14 'mia':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

3/29 8:00 PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (OKC Thunder)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '8':2 'okc':12 'phx':7 'pm':4 'sun':8 'thunder':13 'win':9

3/29 8:00 PM: Will the (NY Knicks) WIN against the (SA Spurs)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '8':2 'knick':8 'ny':7 'pm':4 'sa':12 'spur':13 'win':9

3/29 9:00 PM: Will the (MIN Timberwolves) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '9':2 'den':12 'min':7 'nugget':13 'pm':4 'timberwolv':8 'win':9

3/29 9:30 PM: Will the (HOU Rockets) WIN against the (UTH Jazz)? 

'3/29':1 '30':3 '9':2 'hou':7 'jazz':13 'pm':4 'rocket':8 'uth':12 'win':9

3/29 10:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00':3 '10':2 '3/29':1 'dal':7 'king':13 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'sac':12 'win':9

3/30 5:00 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '3/30':1 '5':2 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'pelican':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/30 7:00 PM: Will the (MEM Grizzlies) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '3/30':1 '7':2 'grizzli':8 'magic':13 'mem':7 'orl':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/30 7:30 PM: Will the (MIL Bucks) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/30':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':12 'buck':8 'hawk':13 'mil':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 3:30 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'3':2 '3/31':1 '30':3 'cavali':8 'cle':7 'den':12 'nugget':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against the (BKN Nets)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 'bkn':12 'la':7 'laker':8 'net':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (LA Clippers) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 'cha':12 'clipper':8 'hornet':13 'la':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (TOR Raptors)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 '76ers':8 'phi':7 'pm':4 'raptor':13 'tor':12 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (MIA Heat) WIN against the (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 'heat':8 'mia':7 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':13 'wsh':12

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against the (NY Knicks)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'knick':13 'ny':12 'okc':7 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (HOU Rockets)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'dal':7 'hou':12 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'rocket':13 'win':9

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (SA Spurs)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'gs':7 'pm':4 'sa':12 'spur':13 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/31 9:00 PM: Will the (UTH Jazz) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '9':2 'jazz':8 'king':13 'pm':4 'sac':12 'uth':7 'win':9

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (CHI Bulls) WIN against the (MIN Timberwolves)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'bull':8 'chi':7 'min':12 'pm':4 'timberwolv':13 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'cha':12 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (MEM Grizzlies) WIN against the (DET Pistons)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'det':12 'grizzli':8 'mem':7 'piston':13 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (BKN Nets) WIN against the (IND Pacers)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'bkn':7 'ind':12 'net':8 'pacer':13 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'blazer':9 'magic':14 'orl':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

4/1 8:00 PM: Will the (ATL Hawks) WIN against the (CHI Bulls)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '8':2 'atl':7 'bull':13 'chi':12 'hawk':8 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 8:00 PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '8':2 'pelican':13 'phx':7 'pm':4 'sun':8 'win':9

4/2 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against (TOR Raptors)? 

'00':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 'la':7 'laker':8 'pm':4 'raptor':12 'tor':11 'win':9

4/2 7:00 PM: Will the (MIL Bucks) WIN against (WSH Wizards)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 'buck':8 'mil':7 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':12 'wsh':11

4/2 7:30 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against (PHI 76ers)?

'30':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 '76ers':12 'okc':7 'phi':11 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

4/2 7:30 PM: Will the (NY Knicks) WIN against (MIA Heat)?

'30':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 'heat':12 'knick':8 'mia':11 'ny':7 'pm':4 'win':9

4/2 8:00 PM: Will the (HOU Rockets) WIN against (MIN Timberwolves)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '8':2 'hou':7 'min':11 'pm':4 'rocket':8 'timberwolv':12 'win':9

4/2 9:00 PM: Will the (SA Spurs) WIN against (DEN Nuggets)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '9':2 'den':11 'nugget':12 'pm':4 'sa':7 'spur':8 'win':9

4/2 9:00 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against (UTH Jazz)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '9':2 'cavali':8 'cle':7 'jazz':12 'pm':4 'uth':11 'win':9

4/2 10:00 PM: Will the (LA Clippers) WIN against (SAC Kings)?

'00':3 '10':2 '4/2':1 'clipper':8 'king':12 'la':7 'pm':4 'sac':11 'win':9

4/2 10:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against (GS Warriors)?

'00':3 '10':2 '4/2':1 'dal':7 'gs':11 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'warrior':12 'win':9

4/3 7:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '4/3':1 '7':2 'blazer':9 'cha':12 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

4/3 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '4/3':1 '7':2 'la':7 'laker':8 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':12 'wsh':11