Ilya Sutskever announced today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025?
Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to @mr_mino , the market creator, unless otherwise specified. I will resolve NO for all questions without evidence. E.g. “The model will score > 85 on MMLU” will resolve NO if no one demonstrates that their model has achieved this score, even if it seems likely that it will if tested.
If you see a question you’d like to resolve early, please post a comment below. Feel free to add answers to this question.
Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs": The creator requires public evidence to resolve YES. Current evidence from Reuters and TechCrunch indicates SSI is primarily using TPUs (not Nvidia GPUs) and Google Cloud as their primary computing provider. Unless further updates emerge, this answer is inclined to resolve NO.
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Thanks to all traders on this market! Alas SSI remains very secretive, and so most of the remaining questions have been resolved NO. If you're interested in similar questions, including about SSI, you may want to participate in the 2026 AI market:
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@mr_mino Resolving this to 50%. I really don't know much about how much they have invested in either Safety or Capabilities.
@mr_mino There are multiple sources which report that Nvidia is an investor. For example:
Yahoo Finance notes that "Alphabet and Nvidia invest in AI startup SSI at $32bn"
CTech writes "OpenAI’s co-founder secures massive backing for his new AGI lab from Alphabet, Nvidia, and top VCs."
So this resolves YES.
@CameronHolmes I see this is at 85% rn, but is there any public evidence for it? I may have missed something
@mr_mino Unfortunately not that I've seen.
It feels like a fair base rate at this point. Perhaps GDM and Anthropic would be the only (public) counter examples at this point?
@CameronHolmes Perhaps as a base rate, but note that I require there be some evidence to resolve the question YES. Regardless, the evidence I see seems to point the other way. For example Reuters says:
"But SSI is so far primarily using TPUs rather than GPUs for its AI research and development, two sources said."
TechCrunch says:
"SSI's deal with Google Cloud suggests the former will spend a large chunk of its computing budget with Google Cloud; a source familiar tells TechCrunch that Google Cloud is SSI's primary computing provider."
So on the basis of these articles, unless there are further updates, I'm inclined to resolve it NO.
@mr_mino oh I hadn't seen these, yeah I agree, that does feel like important evidence. I've done a bit more searching and haven't really found anything as strong to suggest otherwise so it does feel like No is the correct resolution.
https://www.ft.com/content/792e09b2-f63b-41ac-8be8-e10e75ead2d1 this resolves some of the financial questions
@CameronHolmes It's reported that they're also using TPUs in Google Cloud: Ilya Sutskever taps Google Cloud to power his AI startup's research | TechCrunch.
I don't know if we'll have enough information to resolve this though.
They’ve raised exactly $1B, annoyingly.
Valued at $5B - a couple of options can be resolved. @mr_mino
Not planning to work at SSI