What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)
101
10kṀ60k2026
98.6%
The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital
97%
The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
96%
At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company
96%
Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist
84%
The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs
76%
I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025
67%
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
65%
The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)
64%
Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast
60%
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data
55%
The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)
49%
The company will include at least one image on its website
47%
Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company
45%
A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025
45%
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher
43%
The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA
43%
The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU
39%
The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models
39%
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
37%
The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)
Ilya Sutskever announced today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025?
Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to @mr_mino , the market creator, unless otherwise specified. I will resolve NO for all questions without evidence. E.g. “The model will score > 85 on MMLU” will resolve NO if no one demonstrates that their model has achieved this score, even if it seems likely that it will if tested.
If you see a question you’d like to resolve early, please post a comment below. Feel free to add answers to this question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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