Will Sergei Surovikin be arrested during 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

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bought Ṁ300 of YES

"Surovikin, known as General Armageddon for bombing campaigns he waged in Syria, is being held and interrogated in Moscow"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-detained-several-senior-military-officers-in-wake-of-wagner-mutiny-35a696e4

bought Ṁ192 of YES

@SemioticRivalry in the other article, when they said he was resting, they must have meant he was ar-rested. it all makes sense now.

bought Ṁ110 of NO

@higherLEVELING Not sure why everyone's updating so hard on this news, we kind of already knew they had him, this just confirms they haven't released him yet? We've had clarification in the comments below that this will be about an official arrest which doesn't seem that likely to me.

predicted YES

@NamesAreHard Oh okay, Thanks for letting me know. I actually forgot that there was clarification in the comments. For the past week, the articles that have come out have said that he's still missing since the mutiny. So when the WSJ posted, it felt like new information to me.
in a few weeks, something will come out and I'll probably forget about the clarifications, so this will probably happen again. Also there's a lot of time left until the end of the year.

just resting. Top Russian general not seen since mutiny is 'resting', lawmaker says (msn.com)
nothing to see here 💤😴💤💤💤

@higherLEVELING Выгорание на рабочем месте реально. Я предпочитаю, чтобы человек хорошо отдохнул, чем совершал роковые ошибки. 💤

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@BTE Seems like he was/is being questioned but not exactly arrested? Not sure how the market creator will interpret this. FT says detained, Bloomberg says quizzed and kept in one place but not in prison: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-29/top-russian-general-quizzed-over-mutiny-challenging-putin-s-rule.

Sergei Surovikin was quizzed by officials representing military prosecutors over several days about his links to Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information is sensitive. 

The general is being kept in one place but isn’t in prison, and investigators are treating him cautiously to avoid antagonizing others within the military who admire Surovikin’s record of achievements with the army, the person said.

predicted NO

@NamesAreHard Apologies for the lack of description when creating the market. I'm going to resolve as "yes" if official information or confirmation of the arrest of Sergei Surovikin is provided by the Russian officials. Currently, I don't consider it as a "yes" if Sergei Surovikin is temporarily detained or questioned without an official arrest.