Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves based on a comparison of the territory controlled by Ukraine at the resolution date (2029-02-24, seven years after the Russian invasion) and its 2013 territory excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.

It resolves as Yes if there is any part of the 2013 territory (represented in yellow and pink), excluding Crimea and Sevastopol (represented in striped area), that Ukraine does not de facto control in 2029.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.