Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2027?
10
73
Ṁ405Ṁ170
2028
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there is a consensus that Ukraine's military has held all of Melitopol, as defined by its official boundaries, continuously for a minimum of 24 hours at any moment before the conclusion of 2027.
If this hasn't transpired by January 1, 2028 (local time), the answer will be NO. Should there be any uncertainty regarding the city's full control by Ukraine or its status is still disputed on that date, a 7-day extension will be provided to determine the city's precise situation during the final 24 hours of 2027.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will the Ukraine war end by 2025?
19% chance
Will Ukraine regain control of its pre-2014 territory (including Crimea and Donbas) by 2025?
5% chance
Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?
16% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
20% chance
Will the Ukraine war be over by the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will the war in Ukraine end by 2026
23% chance
Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by end of 2025?
7% chance
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
78% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2026?
57% chance