[Metaculus] Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?
resolved Jan 3

Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

The question resolves Yes if at any point between Oct 7, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the Gaza Strip. It resolves No in all other cases, including if the consensus of credible reports is that control of Gaza is disputed, or if there is no consensus of credible reports.

This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

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predicted YES

This whole post is misleading… “will Hamas lose control of Gaza” they already have lost… if Israel wanted, they would walk all over them.. I support Palestine. Don’t come for my head. lol

bought Ṁ40 of YES

IFSW map isn't up to date with open source monitoring, if you're actually wondering how close this is to happening this is the current map from Liveuamap which is better at keeping up to date.

If the IDF take over the encircled Northern remnants and Abassan Al Kabira, the majority of Gaza is under Israeli control and merely awaits reporting consensus.

bought Ṁ200 NO at 10%
predicted NO

@herbSlobodov These maps are completely different. What explains the discrepancy? This doesn't look like a case of being a few days out of date.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington "Control" is a pretty nebulous concept at the best of times, and in a new war without clear frontline doubly so, it really depends on how you weigh the evidence and how you count control.
In the first months of the Ukraine war you had similar stuff going on with totally different maps.

predicted YES

This is not really an answer as to why these specific maps are different, but just saying that we shouldn't be surprised that maps are going to differ.

predicted NO

@herbSlobodov well in case anyone's wondering, these two maps are 58% and 52% red, respectively. But since ISW and e.g. @War_Mapper on Twitter are shading in considerably less area as corresponding to Israeli control/clearing-operations/whatnot than liveuamap is, I think the "consensus" Metaculus will use will likely be for a larger fraction of the area being under Hamas control than this.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington ISW usually wait for confirmations and geolocated events to make changes to the map, which does mean they are slower to update, but from what I understand some other maps don't really have a serious methodology, they just do whatever.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington There is quicker use of geolocated photos posted from the war from liveUAmap and @Shump liveuamap is made by Ukranian engineers they use tracking apps on social media to find these geolocated photos which can actually be found in their archive. Its accurate and been used since the Syrian Civil War.

predicted YES

@herbSlobodov I agree they are decent.
But you still have simple definition issues.

Examples I remember from the first months of the Ukraine war: Russia controls the main roads around an area, do you colour the entire area or only the roads? Well, in the south-east where there little trees maybe you should because they have fire control over all the small roads too and there is no where to hide, but in the north you shouldn't because people can still move all over on b-roads.
You find evidence of activity of enemy forces in someone's controlled area, does it immediately count as contested? What if it's just a few special ops and they have no way to deliver further supplies there? More like a behind enemy lines mission then.
Etc etc

BTW War_mapper on twitter is taking a family break and won't update until the new year.

predicted YES

@herbSlobodov if you want to influence the final decision you need to make an account on Metaculus and post it there, not here. It won't matter what we say here.

predicted YES

@WieDan Ok I shared my source with them there. Pretty much only Hamas agrees to releasing hostages to a ceasefire stops the the IDF controlling the majority of Gaza in ten more days.

bought Ṁ52 of YES

there is a stat arb between this market and another, which is roughly the inverse: https://manifold.markets/ersatz/hamas-still-in-power-in-gaza-by-202

they've updated on Israel's assertion that they now control 70% of the tunnels

predicted YES

the description was updated on this market since i first started spread trading so the spread is larger than i was originally pricing

bought Ṁ880 of NO

latest control map from the ISW - seems like a long way to go before Israel is controlling more than 50% of the land area.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Is that the resolution criteria? If all Israel needs is >50% control over Gaza by land area for this to resolve yes this seems way under priced

bought Ṁ100 of NO
predicted YES

Pictures and videos of Hamas surrendering are beginning to circulate. This also has a significant psychological effect.

bought Ṁ40 YES from 29% to 30%
bought Ṁ0 of NO

@WieDan feel free to take my limit orders. i will make more

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@MarcusAbramovitch and ill clear some mana since i want to make large bets of this kind (20-80% probability where i disagree by 5%+ for 10k+ mana)

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch I am not going to put more in it than this I think. I think the 35% is under valued but I don't think it's over 50% and I don't have enough mana to make such a huge bet.

bought Ṁ150 of YES

predicted YES

I was basically just betting on metaculus, on the expectation that metaculus is usually more accurate than manifold. Maybe metaculus was wrong?

predicted NO

imperfect arb with this market: https://manifold.markets/ersatz/hamas-still-in-power-in-gaza-by-202

i think i've sat on the alpha long enough

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Metaculus is at 55%, and Metaculus forecasters are normally better at predicting the actions of Metaculus admins.
Note that the Q requires that Hamas lose control, not that Israel gain control.

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