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resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES

Hamas ruling Gaza on January 1, 2024. My criteria are the ability to enforce laws and governance, maintain public order, and provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference as well as control of critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs, energy supplies, and communication networks over most of the population of Gaza.

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It's now past 1am on January 1st, 2024 in Gaza. So I'm going to resolve the market.

predicted NO

@ersatz wrongly...

predicted YES

@ersatz I'd love to hear your take on the criteria and which of them you think are currently fulfilled / likely to be fulfilled at resolution time. Which of these do you think Hamas is currently doing, and why? What are your favorite sources? (I have only read some of the discussion below; I'd love an answer of the form "answered below, here's a link".)

  • enforce laws and governance

  • maintain public order

  • provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference

  • control of critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs

  • [control of] energy supplies

  • [control of] communication networks

Does Hamas need to be doing all of these things? A majority? Just one? Judgment call depending on how well they're doing the ones they're doing?

@EvanDaniel Hamas currently exercises its authority over the majority of Gaza's population by controlling the population and preventing riots and other public order disturbances. As far as I can tell it does this without being significantly hindered by external forces (the IDF is not where most of Gaza's population is). They control key transport access points such as the Rafah crossing and the main roads used by the majority of the Palestinian population, as well as fuel supplies (which they mainly redirect to their own fighters). The communication networks used by most of the Palestinians are also still in their hands (even if they sometimes intermittently break down).

To be absolutely clear, if I were to resolve this now based on the criteria I've laid out, it would be YES.

bought Ṁ1,270 YES

@ersatz So if I'm understanding correctly, you're interpreting some things like "they successfully control the fuel and communications that they manage to get, even if Israel is mostly blockading those things"?

Or, put differently: "control of energy supplies" is not precluded by "inability to provide or guarantee availability of energy supplies"?

@EvanDaniel I'm not talking about providing the population any specific level of energy supply, but simply controlling the energy supply, whatever level reaches them.

@ersatz Thanks, that makes sense.

How do you feel about "provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference"?

predicted NO

I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah crossing is the only open crossing when normally there are at least three, and the region's only highway is bisected by the IDF in at least four locations. Also, obviously, almost everyone is displaced without freedom of movement.

@EvanDaniel Same thing, what matters to me is whether the supply of essential services is controlled by Hamas or not, not whether the volume is sufficient to guarantee any given level of well-being.

predicted NO

@ersatz why do you use the word 'provide' in the question.

Can I 'provide' my cats with 100kg bars of gold?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Yes, that's basically what makes me feel like that clause is different than the other clauses.

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel likewise can I control the air-conditioning in my garage?

Note - there is no AC in my garage...

An utter sham of a resolution.

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Yes "provide", I don't mention any specific level that would be inadequate.

predicted NO

@ersatz which essential services do you feel are being provided by Hamas and not outside organisations?

Food?

Water?

Shelter?

Power?

predicted NO

@ersatz "Hamas currently exercises its authority over the majority of Gaza's population"

The vast (~90%) majority of Gaza's population is living inside UN run facilities.

Is your claim that Hamas exerts complete control over these facilities with zero input from the UN?

predicted NO

This is a mis-resolution by the OP's criteria, and I am going to lay out the facts that the OP has disregarded. They are indisputable that Hamas has no significant control over the vast majority of the population. His resolution is ignorant. He has accused me of being too harsh in my criticism of him. I'm being kind; you deserve harsher. People should not get the false impression of life in Gaza, which now has very little involvement from Hamas for Gazans, with the exception of a tiny percentage of the population (and even that is a tenuous claim, at best).

This is a cataclysmic humanitarian tragedy that Hamas has helped create, and has 0 part in solving.

OP states: "My criteria are the ability to enforce laws and governance, maintain public order, and provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference as well as control of critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs, energy supplies, and communication networks over most of the population of Gaza."

https://www.unrwa.org/resources/reports/unrwa-situation-report-57-situation-gaza-strip-and-west-bank-including-east-Jerusalem - As of 3 days ago, 85% of the population of Gaza was receiving shelter or subsistence from UNRWA. The number is likely higher now.

Let's break down the OP's criteria:

  1. "Ability to enforce laws and governance" - Hamas can no longer enforce laws or govern. 85% of the population lives in or right next to UN encampments, run by UN volunteers and employees.

  2. "Maintain public order" - Hamas is not maintaining public order. UNRWA states flatly that there is "a breakdown of law and order, making it difficult for UNRWA to secure [aid] convoys." The only stories I have personally read about Hamas in the past few weeks (and correct me if I'm wrong!) is concerning Hamas stealing aid meant for civilians. This is the OPPOSITE of maintaining order.

  3. "Provide essential services to the community without significant outside interreference." Hamas does not provide a single service that I am presently aware of. Food is principally distributed by UNRWA and volunteer organizations. Desalinated water comes from a non-Hamas source. UNRWA states: "The entire population of Gaza of 2.2 million people is now almost exclusively dependent on humanitarian assistance including food."

  4. "Control of critical infrastructure" - This is the one area where I think an ARGUMENT could be made for Hamas. They seem to have intermittent and warlord-like control in the vicinity of the Rafah gate, taking advantage of the aforementioned breakdown in public order. The extent to which they control the comings-and-goings through Rafah at this point is unclear.

It seems clear to me that the OP has an extremely strong bias to expiring this market as Yes in favor of Hamas, and is willing to exit reality to get to his predetermined outcome.

predicted NO

I think the only real questions here are whether the market maker actually intends to resolve as they're claiming (or if this is a ploy leading to some last minute manipulation?) and whether they'll be permitted to do so with impunity.

predicted NO

@Domer Ersatz has an extremely strong pro Israel bias. Hamas being still in power is a justification for Israel continuing their absurd and inhumane war of destruction and ethnic cleansing.

predicted NO

@Domer I appreciate this and will add my (now outdated) essay with links from a few weeks ago. I think mods should consider this seriously for misresolution (other than Marcus, who for some ungodly reason said it was good to resolve this early).

https://manifold.markets/ersatz/hamas-still-in-power-in-gaza-by-202#JPFxpmbRcfgwAOuDPpS8

predicted NO

How on earth was this resolved YES?

"On January 1st" - We aren't there yet

"Enforce laws and governance" - No, there is no part of the strip where Hamas can operate un-hindered, certainly not 50%

"Provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference" - The entire nation is reliant on outside aid, the food/water, power and medical systems in particular.

"Control of critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs, energy supplies, and communication networks" - Utterly not under their control.

Anyone have anything close to a reason any let alone all of these criteria are being met?

predicted NO

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always meant to refer to "military operational control" like the other Hamas control markets, and reading it as about "providing" things is failing to grasp how "clarified" this was by the earlier statement that it is judged by population, as well as the earlier comments from which the description was copied in the first place. If that sounds both circuitous and irrational, I agree! I will never be betting on an Ersatz market again. He's the worst non-troll market maker I've ever seen.

predicted NO

@Panfilo how do they have military operational control?

Is there anywhere above ground in Gaza a Hamas operative can walk unhindered?

Is the claim that the majority of the population are in the tunnels?

predicted NO

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer These are great questions for what should be a very controversial market resolution discussion. I even earlier wrote an essay comment covering many of the bases mentioned in the description. But I can guarantee it's not worth it at this point. Personally I rated this market 1 star.

predicted NO

@Panfilo "not worth it at this point"

I'm quickly considering any non-sports market to fall into this bucket...

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