[Metaculus] Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?
14
106
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resolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO

Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent FAS estimates available on December 31, 2023 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.

Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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predicted NO

@Lion if metaculus has already resolved you can request the bot resolve a question by sending a managram for 10 mana with message "resolve https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-china-have-at-least". It'll send you your mana back afterwards.

predicted NO

@jskf ok guess I have to go figure out what's broken here lol

predicted NO

@jskf thanks and done :) Maybe put this tip in every description? I actually thought these were automatically resolved by API

predicted NO

@Lion they are automatically resolved within a few hours normally. I do intend to put managram links in the descriptions. I haven't done so yet because it would require editing the description (so I can put the market url in the link).