Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent FAS estimates available on December 31, 2023 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.

Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.