Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024?
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024?
8
1kṀ1085Aug 16
18%
United States
47%
Russia
25%
UK
25%
France
83%
China
61%
India
69%
Pakistan
58%
North Korea
35%
Israel
10%
[Other]
Which of these countries will expand the size of their nuclear stockpile in 2024 (as compared to the 2023 size)?
Based on the first OWID update in 2025 that includes 2024 data. If there is no update, close time may be extended. If Our World in Data is not publishing comparable data (successor pages to the linked one are fine), its sources (Federation of American Scientists, if available) or other credible reporting (if not) will be used instead.
2025 version: /EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-increase-the-s-ymcrvslwwy
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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