Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump? (According to manifold)
29
103
Ṁ1k
Nov 4
59%
chance

I'll compare the probability in this market right before and right after the debate. If it increases I'll resolve yes.

Technicalities:

  • If it stays at the same number, I'll use the manifold API to get the exact numbers

  • If it still stays the same I'll resolve NO

  • If there is no debate I'll resolve NA

  • If it doesn't end up being a debate between Biden and Trump, the market will be about whoever the nominees are

Get Ṁ600 play money

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