Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump? (According to manifold)
US Politics2024 US Presidential ElectionTrumpJoe BidenDebate
Basic
41
Ṁ5.2k
resolved Jun 28
Resolved
NO

I'll compare the probability in this market right before and right after the debate. If it increases I'll resolve yes.

Technicalities:

  • If it stays at the same number, I'll use the manifold API to get the exact numbers

  • If it still stays the same I'll resolve NO

  • If there is no debate I'll resolve NA

  • If it doesn't end up being a debate between Biden and Trump, the market will be about whoever the nominees are

Get Ṁ600 play money

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A reflection: One thing I didn't think about when making this market is the fact that Biden's chances dropped from both his lower chance of beating Trump and his lower chance of being the nominee.

45.6% according to the API, this will be the starting point

related: https://manifold.markets/DanielRohrer/will-trump-claim-the-cnn-debate-on?r=RGFuaWVsUm9ocmVy

Wonder how relevant data from their past debates will turn out to be. Lotta water under the bridge since then.

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