If Biden wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
Basic
4
Ṁ60resolved Sep 4
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Biden wins the 2024 presidential election, I will conduct a simple YES/NO poll on Manifold titled "Has Biden performed better than you expected as President?" I will post this poll on or around November 3rd, 2026. If after one week, >50% of the votes are YES, this market will resolve YES. If not, this market resolves NO.
If Biden is not elected President, this market resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.
Companion market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
38% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
56% chance
Will the Manifold experience get worse after the US election, according to a poll taken 3 months after the US election?
65% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Joe Biden before the end of 2024?
42% chance
Will the number of monthly active users on Manifold drop between November 30th, 2024 and December 31st, 2024?
78% chance
If Trump is elected president, will Manifold think he made a serious attempt to remain in charge after 4 years are up?
39% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance