If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?

Question

If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, I will conduct a simple YES/NO poll on Manifold titled "Has Trump performed better than you expected as President?" I will post this poll on or around November 3rd, 2026. If after one week, >50% of the votes are YES, this market will resolve YES. If not, this market resolves NO.

If Trump is not elected President, this market resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.

Companion market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/mint/if-biden-wins-will-manifold-users-v)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (19 traders, as of Sep 1, 2026).