Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States military invades or occupies Greenland by January 31, 2026. Invasion is defined as the deployment of U.S. armed forces to Greenland with the intent to seize control of the territory against the will of Danish and Greenlandic authorities. Occupation requires sustained military presence and administrative control. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government statements, NATO announcements, or major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.). The market resolves NO if no such military action occurs by the deadline.

Background

Trump has reiterated his wish to take over Greenland after he reiterated his wish to do so in an interview with The Atlantic magazine on January 4, 2026. Trump has long advocated for control over Greenland and reiterated his interest in taking over the mineral-rich Arctic territory, saying "We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security". The Trump administration named Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, who publicly supports annexation, as special envoy to the mineral-rich Arctic Island. Greenland's strategic position between Europe and North America makes it a key site for the US ballistic missile defence system, and its mineral wealth is attractive, as the US hopes to reduce its reliance on Chinese exports.

Opinion polls have previously shown that Greenlanders overwhelmingly oppose U.S. control, while a strong majority support independence from Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the U.S. has "no right to annex" territories of Denmark and has told the U.S. to "stop the threats" about taking over Greenland.

Considerations

Trump has declined to rule out using military force to seize the mineral-rich island. However, Trump said "We'll worry about Greenland in about two months, let's talk about Greenland in 20 days", suggesting any action would likely occur after the January 31 deadline. Greenland is part of NATO and is therefore covered by the alliance's security guarantee, and Denmark already has a defense agreement with the United States which gives the United States wide access to Greenland, which would complicate any unilateral military action.