Will the Wagner group invade Lithuania in 2023?
31
610Ṁ4186
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This market resolves as YES if an episode occured in 2023 meets all of the following conditions:

  • At least 50 armed Wagner personnel enter Lithuania.

  • They fire against any number of persons opposing their presence.

  • Their actions are not condemned by whoever is the de facto leader of Wagner at the time.

If Wagner ceases to exist before such an episode and in 2023, this market resolves as N/A.

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predictedNO

Can we get a clarification on what you'd consider to be an invasion please?

predictedNO

@JoshuaWilkes At least 50 armed Wagner personnel enter Lithuania, fire against any number of persons opposing their presence, and furthermore, their actions are not repudiated by whoever is the de facto leader of Wagner at the time. If Wagner ceases to exist before this happens and in 2023, this market resolves as N/A. Will update market description, thanks.

predictedNO

@milanw Strong

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