Will the Wagner group invade Poland in 2023?
33
610Ṁ7193resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves as YES if an episode occured in 2023 meets all of the following conditions:
At least 50 armed Wagner personnel enter Poland.
They fire against any number of persons opposing their presence.
Their actions are not condemned by whoever is the de facto leader of Wagner at the time.
If Wagner ceases to exist before such an episode and in 2023, this market resolves as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ25 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
Sort by:
@higherLEVELING No statement or acknowledgement from Wagner is necessary for positive resolution.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Wagner Group actually start a coup by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
8% chance
Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
13% chance
Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
16% chance