Will the Wagner group invade Poland in 2023?
33
64
610
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This market resolves as YES if an episode occured in 2023 meets all of the following conditions:

  • At least 50 armed Wagner personnel enter Poland.

  • They fire against any number of persons opposing their presence.

  • Their actions are not condemned by whoever is the de facto leader of Wagner at the time.

If Wagner ceases to exist before such an episode and in 2023, this market resolves as N/A.

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Wagner doesn't exist anymore right?

lets say the two things on list occured,. they got across and shot, if wagner leader didnt acknowledge it or say anything about it, would this resolve? what would he have to say in order to resolve yes

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING No statement or acknowledgement from Wagner is necessary for positive resolution.

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