I believe that Trump has only ever said one bad thing about Russia [credit to @AlQuinn](feel free to try to convince me otherwise in the comments), and I don’t believe that he’ll ever say anything bad again.
This market will Resolve YES once Trump says something negative about Vladimir Putin’s Russian government (must be said after time of market creation). This will Resolve NO once Trump dies, Putin dies, or Putin stops being the de facto power holder in Russia (President or Prime Minister).
As this is a subjective market, I will not be betting.
Things that will count:
“Putin was wrong about x”
“Russia [in reference to Putin’s actions/decisions] was wrong about x”
Things that won’t count:
Criticizing any Russian enemies of the state.
Criticizing things Putin himself has already critiqued.
1,000People are also trading
Even know, he is willing to admit being an idiot ("I don't know what happened") rather than directly call him out for what he has been doing since 2014 in Ukraine.
Trump, 25/5/2025: "I'm not happy with what Putin is doing. He's killing a lot of people and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time ... we're in the middle of talking and he's shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities. I don't like it at all. I'm surprised."
"He’s grinding it out. Most people thought it would last about one week and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good," Trump said.
"We have numbers that almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed. About 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed. Russia’s bigger, they have more soldiers to lose but that’s no way to run a country," he added.
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-war-destroying/
I think there are many things in the past days, more in the article, that qualify for a YES here? @mattyb
Trump, who boasts of a close personal relationship with Putin, had previously called Russia’s invasion a “holocaust.”
Trump elaborated on his comments later in the interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, saying, “This is a genocide that’s taking place.”
@AlQuinn if restated in 2024, I would count this.
“We have the strongest, most capable nuclear anywhere in the world because of what I did,” Trump said, reiterating his claim that Putin would not have invaded were he in office.
Trump said the U.S. has a more powerful nuclear arsenal than Russia and that “people shouldn’t be pushing us around.”
“I think in 100 years people are going to look back and they are going to say, ‘How did we stand back and NATO stand back?'” Trump said
@mattyb Can you clarify the comment needs to be made as of the creation date of the market then? It's unclear when you say "I don’t believe that Trump has ever said anything bad about Russia", which implies that you are including past statements in your assessment.
@AlQuinn sorry this was meant to only be future looking. was that not clear enough for the market description? i should’ve noted only counting statements made going forward.
i can n/a this one and redo it if that was unclear.
@mattyb I don't have an opinion on that since I didn't buy into this market, but at the very least, it seems the discussion of lack of prior criticisms in the description would need an update.
@traders this was meant to be forward looking, so not counting anything prior to the creation of this market. i wasn’t very clear in the market description, did you all understand that? if not, we can n/a and start over with a clearer description.
👍
@mattyb wrong you say "I don’t believe that Trump has ever said anything bad about Russia (feel free to try to convince me otherwise in the comments), and I don’t believe that he ever will." Past matters
@BrendanTroadec Fwiw I took this as their inspiration for starting the market rather than as the criteria for the market..
@JMC Except the market description now contains an incorrect statement, since I've pointed out a clear prior case of Trump admonishing Russia's actions in the Ukraine war. It's misleading wrt base rates to ignore this point, even if the market is about the future.