resolves yes if trump steps foot in russia by the end of his term
Update 2024-09-12 (PST): - Visiting a Russian embassy in a country other than Russia does not count as visiting Russia (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@strutheo what about disputed territories that aren't related to the current war (e.g. the Kuril islands)
At 50:50 odds, yes seems like an easy bet. He's talked about resolving the Russia/Ukraine conflict, he values personal relationships in any sort of negotiation, and four years is a long time.
If nothing else, there will be events that spike this market towards yes even if he doesn't actually go, so unless Trump promptly dies or something, I should have opportunities to unload my YES position at a profit.
@DanHomerick Here's why I'm taking the opposite side: In his first four years, Trump never once stepped foot in Russia, despite ample coverage of his relationship with Putin in the news and his bragging about their relationship. Now that the US is essentially supporting a shooting war with Russia, it seems even less likely.
Peace talks generally take place in neutral countries, not hostile territories. Trump's visit to North Korea only came after multiple diplomatic talks in neutral countries, and the visit itself was purely symbolic. I don't anticipate an opportunity for the same kind of symbolic showmanship following peace talks with Putin - even after the shooting stops, I just don't think tensions can cool that quickly.
Your expectation that the market might spike is reasonable, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's already being priced-in and ~50% is already a high-ball estimate for that reason.
@SirSalty it would be a political decision on manifold's part, which do you recognize lol
id say all the conflicted zones wouldnt resolve imo