@Manifold Resolves NO, he hit only 3 home runs and the postseason is over.

Got a few no shares at 90% at one point 😳

upgraded!

Made this into sweepstakes!

@SirSalty I'm not in the US, does this affect me at all? I can still predict here, right?

@JTBooth yea mana markets are unaffected by whether they also have a sweepstakes version

Limit order up for whoever keeps buying this thing above 50%

Dodgers in the world series but no more home runs against the Mets. At 0.07 hr/ab and 5 ab/game, 45% chance in a 7 game series. 33% in a 5.8 game series, which is the ev when matchups date coin flips. buying no down to 35%.

@JTBooth this is the really fun question to ask, come on

@JTBooth https://manifold.markets/JTBooth/will-judge-or-ohtani-hit-more-home

AND THATS 3!!! 2nd pitch of the game

And that’s 2!

Huh. Ran it at:

Dodgers 0.57 to beat the Mets in a given have

Dodgers 0.5 to win games in world series if they make it

Ohtani 0.6 to hit home runs against postseason pitching

And he's still at 18%. Suddenly I don't want to hold "no"

If the dodgers take every series to the final game and make the world series, Shohei gets 5 PAs per game, and he hits at his regular season average rate, about 7.2 home runs total (counting what we've seen already). Seems like there's a lot of ways to miss - pitching is stronger, some series might go shorter, dodgers might lose. Bought down to 20%. If a game wasn't about to start I'd make a limit order.

Ohtani and the Dodgers are making their postseason debut now!

@mattyb and that’s one

Here's one for Judge: