I don't think that Shohei Ohtani will be even able to play for the 2024 season due to his injury. In order for him to be voted AL or NL MVP for the 2024 season he must be able to play, and perform at its peak during the 2024 season. His recent injury limits him from playing baseball the way he should and performing as the star he is, taking into account that he is not just a regular player but an all around player that can hit the ball and also pitch at the same level, while outperforming his competitors and teammates. As mentioned by his current MLB team (The Angels), he will not be playing for the rest of this season and he will be also getting a Tommy John surgery soon (CBSSPORTS, 2023). The rehab after surgery could last almost 12 months and sometimes even longer (Hopkins, 2023). If we assume a 12-month recovery time (to be on the conservative side), and considering Ohtani is getting the surgery soon after the end of the 2023 season, then he might not be ready to play until the end of the 2024 season at the earliest. Assuming the best, he has a 70% probability of fully recovering within 12 months. Then he would have 1-2 months to return to its peak performance (estimated probability of 50%), and his probability of being voted as AL or NL MVP is as low as 5%. Combining all these, there is a 1.75% probability for him to be voted as AL or NL MVP for the 2024 season : :.
Shohei Ohtani injury update:
Tommy John's Elbow Injury:
@JuanSoto https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/09/19/shohei-ohtani-surgery-elbow-recovery-timeline-pitch-2025 per this article he did get an alternative treatment, so it seems he'll be able to hit in 2024 immediately but not pitch, so I think he has a viable but unlikely route of winning it as a pure DH (if he didn't get injured this year even without his pitching it probably would've happened in the AL so it's definitely possible)