Who will the International Criminal Court (ICC) issue arrest warrants for in 2024?
Basic
27
Ṁ5347Jan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
98.5%
Both members of Hamas and the Israeli government
0.8%
Neither members of Hamas nor the Israeli government
0.6%
Members of Hamas, but no one from the Israeli government
0.1%
No members of Hamas, but someone from the Israeli government
Context: Israeli Officials Believe International Court Is Preparing Arrest Warrants Over War
Note: Arrest warrants must be in connection to the October 7th attacks, or the Gazan War which followed, or future offshoots of the war. This must be mentioned in the terms/announcement of the arrest warrant(s).
This will Resolve when members of both organizations have been charged, or after December 31st.
See related market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for an American politician by 2030?
32% chance
Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?
41% chance
Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?
17% chance
[Metaculus] Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?
98% chance
Will the ICC indict Netanyahu for war crimes before January 1st 2025?
91% chance
Will a notable US politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges in 2024?
Will anyone be arrested in connection with Jeffrey Epstein in 2024?
26% chance
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030?
Will there be an international or global crisis in the year 2024?