Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
40
10kαΉ€14k
2029
40%
Other US citizen
24%
Political underling
23%
Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press
23%
Member of the press
18%
Political rival
17%
State governor
15%
Member of congress
11%
State supreme court judge
7%
Supreme court judge
7%
Former president

The recent Supreme Court ruling (Trump v United States - wiki, pdf) is being criticized for allowing absolute and presumptive immunity for various acts involving core powers. One of the recurring hypotheticals is (paraphrased) "ordering Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival".

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the above people by 2029?

  • Resolves YES to any assassinations that have been ordered by the president by the end of 2028 as they are ordered (assassinations that are publicly ordered but not carried out prior to 2028 still count).

  • Resolves NO to any assassinations that happen, but are not claimed responsibility by the president and are attributed to independent, presidentially-unrelated assassins prior to the end of 2028.

  • Resolves NO on December 31st of 2028 for any assassinations that have not yet been ordered.

  • Motivation doesn't matter, but it has to be a deliberate, targeted killing (for instance if something like this happened again, it would resolve "Other US citizen" to "YES"). Accidental or incidental killings don't count here, but explicit assassination orders, whether they're justified as lawful or not, do.

  • Impeachment in the house or senate, and subsequent removal from office alone does not count as "criminal charges" here. The president has to avoid being criminally charged for the act, whether or not he stays in office.

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