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MANIFOLD
Which party will clinch the nomination first (in terms of delegates)?
9
Ṁ235Ṁ2.2k
resolved Mar 12
100%99.4%
Democrats
0.2%
Republicans
0.3%
Both on the same date

This will Resolve once (at least) one candidate hits their requisite total (seen below). The individual convention rules are as follows:

In 2024, there are an estimated 4,672 delegates: 3,933 pledged delegates and 739 automatic delegates—more commonly known as superdelegates

To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate needs to receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates on the first ballot: an estimated 1,968 pledged delegates.

Source

In 2024, there are an estimated 2,429 delegates: 2,325 pledged delegates and 104 unpledged delegates.

To win the Republican nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of delegates—an estimated 1,215 delegates.

Source

Current counts (as of February 10th):

DNC

  • Biden: 91

RNC

  • Trump: 63

  • Haley: 17

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