In Hollywood, the math goes that a movie needs to make twice its budget to not be considered a flop (Hollywood math is wild, but this is to cover marketing, distribution and other “final mile” costs).

The reported budget for Wicked (just Part One) is $145million (per Wikipedia). Accordingly, it’d have to make at least $290M worldwide to be considered profitable.

Will Wicked (2024) make less than $290M in its initial theatrical run? Is Ariana’s Oz flick going to be a flop?

Note: If there is an updated budget for the film (higher or lower), this market will continue with double the upper bound of that new range.

See other flop markets:

• /mattyb/is-gladiator-2-going-to-be-a-flop

• /mattyb/is-red-one-2024-going-to-be-a-flop