Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Universal Pictures officially announces a third theatrical film in the Wicked movie franchise. The announcement must come from Universal Pictures or a major entertainment news outlet (Variety, Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, or similar) confirming that a "Wicked 3" or equivalent third installment is in development or greenlit for theatrical release.

This market resolves NO if: (1) Universal does not announce a third film by December 31, 2030, or (2) Universal explicitly states the franchise will conclude with two films, or (3) any announced third installment is cancelled before theatrical release.

Background

The Wicked film adaptation is structured as a two-part film that tells the story of Elphaba and Glinda's friendship and rivalry in the Land of Oz before and after the arrival of Dorothy Gale from Kansas. Wicked: For Good is scheduled to be released on November 21, 2025. Wicked grossed $474 million in the United States and Canada, and $284 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $757 million. Deadline Hollywood calculated the film's net profit as $230 million, making Wicked the fifth-most profitable film of 2024.

Considerations

The Broadway musical Wicked is a complete two-act story, and the film adaptation was explicitly designed as a two-part film to avoid omitting plot points. Universal has not publicly indicated plans for a third film, and the narrative structure of the source material does not naturally extend beyond the second installment. However, the franchise's massive commercial success could incentivize Universal to develop additional content, whether as a prequel, sequel, or spin-off.