Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Universal Pictures officially announces a third theatrical film in the Wicked movie franchise. The announcement must come from Universal Pictures or a major entertainment news outlet (Variety, Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, or similar) confirming that a "Wicked 3" or equivalent third installment is in development or greenlit for theatrical release.
This market resolves NO if: (1) Universal does not announce a third film by December 31, 2030, or (2) Universal explicitly states the franchise will conclude with two films, or (3) any announced third installment is cancelled before theatrical release.
Background
The Wicked film adaptation is structured as a two-part film that tells the story of Elphaba and Glinda's friendship and rivalry in the Land of Oz before and after the arrival of Dorothy Gale from Kansas. Wicked: For Good is scheduled to be released on November 21, 2025. Wicked grossed $474 million in the United States and Canada, and $284 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $757 million. Deadline Hollywood calculated the film's net profit as $230 million, making Wicked the fifth-most profitable film of 2024.
Considerations
The Broadway musical Wicked is a complete two-act story, and the film adaptation was explicitly designed as a two-part film to avoid omitting plot points. Universal has not publicly indicated plans for a third film, and the narrative structure of the source material does not naturally extend beyond the second installment. However, the franchise's massive commercial success could incentivize Universal to develop additional content, whether as a prequel, sequel, or spin-off.
Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES for any prequel, sequel, or spin-off film announced by Universal Pictures. The film does not need to be titled "Wicked 3" specifically, nor does it need to be a direct continuation of the main story.
Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES upon announcement of a third Wicked film by Universal Pictures, even though cancellation before theatrical release would subsequently resolve it NO. This means traders should evaluate both the likelihood of announcement AND the likelihood of follow-through to theatrical release.
Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve YES upon announcement alone. Resolution will wait until the theatrical release of the third film occurs. If a third film is announced but cancelled before theatrical release, the market resolves NO.
1,000People are also trading
@delfinasu But it can't be YES, because the criteria state that a cancelation means NO. So you can't resolve on the announcement, because you have to wait to see if it's canceled. Do you see the problem?
https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/2068396-wicked-3-spin-off-movies-teased-by-composer
"I’m trying to think what I’m allowed to say,” said Schwartz. “But let me just say, I think that a spinoff is not out of the question. Let me put it that way. Oz is a very rich territory. There are a lot of stories there, and possible stories. L. Frank Baum wrote many other odd stories besides that first book. So I think there may be some other visits to Oz in the future, and I might even be participating in one of them.”