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@IsaacKing has blocked me stating, “Completely making stuff up is exactly why I blocked you on Manifold.” (src) Honestly, this really stung, and I would like to do some internal reckoning if this is genuine.
As context, I believe that every word that I’ve written on Manifold has been completely and absolutely honest and true, and I’m proud of how I’ve tried to make this community a healthier, happier, and more fun space. Most of my comments here are either a helpful tip/observation, or a joke (always genuine and never at someone else’s expense!).
If you can find a single fabrication of mine, any instance where I “made something up” on this site or the Discord, I will put my Mana on the line and pay you 100M (per comment)! One person can win all 400M, so sleuth away! Just post a link to something I said on either site and the mana’s yours.
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Seems you actually are paying out to other people at least, which I appreciate. I expect you won't honor that for me, but I'll give it one more chance anyway.
1. You claimed that I was violating the community guidelines by "making trades with multiple accounts on the same market to manipulate the price/odds an account can buy in for."
Your citation for this was this market, where I had made trades with multiple accounts. It is obvious to any reasonable observer that the reason I did this is because my main account currently has a negative balance, so I can't bet on it. (Citation: at least one other person figured this out just from looking at what happened, and mentioned it to you.) Both of my accounts are betting in the same direction, so this does not benefit either account in terms of buy-in price; it actually makes it worse. There's no financial benefit to buying with multiple accounts; I get exactly the same payout either way.
You also claimed that I was "jacking up prices", which is a transparently nonsensical claim. Any purchase in a market "jacks up prices", that's the entire point of prediction markets; the price changes in response to purchases.
2. You claimed that I had blocked you for this comment. Your evidence for this was that I had blocked you after that comment. I linked you to the relevant Wikipedia article, and your response was to laugh react and not respond further.
The actual reason I blocked you was for leaving me a 2-star rating on this market, calling it "subjective", and implying I had resolved it incorrectly. In reality the resolution was obviously correct; you'd be hard-pressed to come up with a clearer example of someone being misleading than saying they'll do something and then not doing it.
3. You claimed that my FUH market felt "spiteful and personal" to you. It was obviously personal, and it's unclear how that's supposed to be a bad thing. As for spiteful, while that's subjective and I can't read your mind, I'm pretty confident that you would not have felt the same way if FUH had honored their commitment and the market had resolved YES. As such this seems hypocritical.
4. You claimed in the same comment that "I would’ve been surprised the [voting] clause wasn’t enacted if Isaac didn’t have a >=45x payout over anyone else that traded here." This is the same old "Isaac resolves his markets to benefit himself financially" accusation that I've disproven time and time again, often costing myself many thousands of mana in the process. (The most obvious of which being WvM.)
5. In your thread with Mira, you claimed that you don't understand the difference between using an alt account to place a bet because my main account is currently negative, and using a large number of alt accounts to farm referral bonuses. These two things are, again, obvious to any observer with a basic understanding of prediction markets; one of them creates mana and awards it to me, the other does not.
In general, many things point towards you acting in bad faith:
You've been on Manifold for a while and clearly know how it works, but suddenly lose this knowledge when it's convenient. e.g. your claim that "jacking up prices" by purchasing NO is somehow unethical or benefits me more than any other bet in a prediction market, and your claim to not understand the difference between using alts to farm bonuses and using them for things that gain me no bonuses whatsoever.
You seem incapable of understanding basic English, like that the word "mislead" applies to a situation where someone promises to do something and then does not do it. This is about as objective as any English language interpretation can be, short of things programmable into a computer. If you Google the definition of "mislead", you'll see that it means "to cause someone to have a wrong idea or impression about someone or something." I did in fact have a wrong impression about something (whether FUH would break their streak), and this was a direct causal consequence of FUH's actions.
When I contest your claims, you don't try to defend them and explain why what you said is actually true. Instead you ignore the issue and try to damage my reputation in unrelated ways, such as how after I blocked you, you went and found my bets in BTE's market and came up with a nonsensical claim that I was violating community guidelines. (Of course it's possible that you just happened to notice two unrelated criticisms of me at the same time, but it's a far more parsimonious explanation that you went looking.) You've also spent a lot of time insulting me in various places across the site, but not actually pointing to anything I did wrong, just using vague implication. This is probably the most classic example of bad faith; make false statements, and when called on them, dodge the question and try to smear the accuser for daring to accuse you of something.
In general you seem to be trying to "win" via charisma and rhetoric rather than say true things or contribute to building a truthseeking community. You've been making a bunch of positive statements about your own personality lately, such as "the only <5star review i got was from a market i fucked up. i took full accountability there, and still kick myself for not fully researching it." and "I believe that every word that I’ve written on Manifold has been completely and absolutely honest and true, and I’m proud of how I’ve tried to make this community a healthier, happier, and more fun space." I've noticed a number of other (non-Manifold) acquaintances who do this, always looking for ways to slip self-puffery and PR speak into sentences where it's not really relevant. Those people similarly tend to be dishonest and prioritize being liked over factual accuracy. I of course can't be sure that the same thing is going on with you, but it falls into a pattern that I'm unfortunately pretty familiar with by this point. As another example, you criticized me in discord for not tagging everyone with @traders to let them know about the poll, but never actually suggested that course of action in the first place. (I hadn't considered it, and have now done it. It's a new feature.) This makes it seem like you care more about making me look bad than you do about having the poll actually reflect consensus.
The biggest issue really just is the original one about the FUH market though. I'm generally extremely charitable to people with differing beliefs and open to discussing them; I've had productive, cordial conversations with an antivaxxer, probability theory deniers, an anti nuclear advocate who didn't know the difference between fission and fusion, and a literal flat Earth believer. But "it is not misleading to tell someone you're going to do something and then not do it" is a whole other level of reality denial, and when what's being contested is the definition of basic non-technical English words, it's clear that productive communication is not going to be possible.
Matty, I will say that interactions with Isaac can often be frustrating. The two friends I brought to the site quit after interacting with him a few times because "he is such a self-righteous prick who just assumes he is right and you are a dumbass. How do you deal with him". I'm sorry you've felt this way, you aren't the only one.
Everyone says things that are at times not exact, slightly false, sarcasm, a slight exaggeration, etc. It's part of good and efficient human communication. Don't worry about it. I would only start to worry about it if it becomes a pattern with other users.
Feel free to DM me if you want to talk about it