Examples: What would count: Buying mana (which I almost certainly will not do) Buying a subscription plan with USD that gets me perks on the site What would not count: Event tickets Discord boosts

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 25% chance (5 traders, as of May 3, 2026).

Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?

Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?

Ṁ100Ṁ125

Dec 31

25%

chance

ALL

Examples:

What would count:

What would not count:

Market context

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Why will you almost certainly not buy mana?

@MachiNi not a priority of mine to spend money on

@realDonaldTrump that’s a different claim than ‘I certainly won’t’

@MachiNi i have no intentions to.